Attribution model
There is no formula. An attribution model is a credit-allocation rule applied to the touchpoints a system observed, and every rule produces a different answer from the same journey.
| Last click | 100% of credit to the final click before purchase. The default in most ecommerce reporting. |
| First click | 100% of credit to the first recorded touch. |
| Linear | Credit split equally across every touch. |
| Time decay | More credit the closer a touch sits to the purchase. |
| Position based | Weighted to the first and last touch, the remainder spread across the middle. |
| Data driven | Algorithmic weighting fitted by the platform. Still correlational, not causal. |
Worked example
Example numbers. Whichever model you pick rewrites each channel's apparent revenue, and therefore its ROAS and per-channel CAC.
What is a good attribution model?
None is accurate in a causal sense. Every model allocates credit among touches that were observed; no model can say whether the sale needed any of them. The useful choice depends on the question: last click over-rewards demand capture like branded search, first click over-rewards discovery channels, and the multi-touch rules in between are opinions about weighting, not measurements.
The workable practice is to compare several models side by side, treat the gaps between them as information about journey shape, and settle causal questions with incrementality testing. Remember that some numbers need no model at all: MER and blended CAC divide real totals and are immune to attribution entirely.
Attribution model vs related methods
| Method | What it is | Relation to attribution |
|---|---|---|
| Incrementality | A holdout experiment measuring conversions ads actually caused | Causal where attribution is correlational; episodic rather than always-on. |
| Marketing mix modeling (MMM) | Statistical estimation from aggregate spend and sales history | Estimates channel contribution with no user-level tracking or credit rule. |
| MER | Total revenue ÷ total marketing spend | Needs no attribution at all; cannot double-count. |
| ROAS | Attributed revenue ÷ ad spend | Consumes the model's output; change the model and ROAS changes with it. |
Common mistakes
- Treating platform-reported attribution as ground truth. Each platform grades its own homework with its own model and window.
- Summing attributed revenue across platforms. Overlapping windows let several channels claim the same order, so channel totals can exceed what the store actually took.
- Switching models and reading the shift as performance. Moving from last click to position based reshuffles credit; nothing about the business changed.
- Judging upper-funnel channels on last click. Discovery channels rarely hold the final click, so last click systematically defunds them.
- Assuming data-driven means causal. Algorithmic models still fit weights to observed, platform-visible touches; they do not run an experiment.
Frequently asked questions
- Incrementality
- Marketing mix modeling (MMM)
- Geo-lift test
- Holdout test
- MER (marketing efficiency ratio)
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Inside Blufire, S5 Acquisition & Attribution shows attribution models compared side by side, so the model choice is visible instead of silently baked into one dashboard number.
Updated July 2026