Blufire Research
Blufire ResearchEcommerce benchmarks, measured on margin.
Most ecommerce statistics are built on revenue and platform-reported conversions, which is why they flatter everyone. Blufire Research works on contribution margin: what a brand actually keeps after the product, the fulfilment, the fees and the marketing that moved with each sale.
What you will find here
4 benchmark studies, 4 reports and 5 guides on margin, retention, attribution and demand. Every figure is cited to its source, and the method behind the numbers is the one taught free on The Math.
Benchmarks
What good looks like, measured.
Demand · June 2026The Weather Demand IndexWeather is the largest demand driver that almost no analytics platform measures. It moves roughly a third of economic activity and influences 62% of what consumers buy, yet most operators still treat a cold snap or a heatwave as noise in the numbers. This study quantifies how much demand moves, by event, by vertical and by Australian region, and shows the baseline math to forecast it.Margin · June 2026The Margin-True BenchmarkMost ecommerce benchmarks stop at revenue and gross margin. The number that decides whether a brand survives is contribution margin. This study segments contribution margin, CAC payback and returns by category and brand size, shows the math behind each metric, and explains why the median DTC brand earns far less than its top line suggests.Pipeline · June 2026The Lead & Pipeline Economics BenchmarkA lead is not a cost. It is a priced option on a future customer. This study sets the 2026 reference points for what that option costs, how often it pays off, and how fast it turns into revenue, segmented by vertical and deal size.Retention · June 2026The Retention & Lifecycle Marketing BenchmarkAcross a primary dataset of 156,110 direct-to-consumer customers, the repeat-purchase rate is 18.8%. This study takes that one number apart, then shows the owned-channel lifecycle math that moves it, and what each point of repeat-rate is worth in durable profit.
Reports
The operating decisions, argued in full.
Report · June 2026The CFO Margin Operating ModelMost consumer businesses run on a revenue number a CFO does not trust and a margin number nobody forecasts. This report sets out the operating model that fixes both: a margin ladder reconciled to source, a variance loop that explains the miss, a forecast with an honest horizon, and one metric that ties marketing effort to durable profit.Report · May 2026The Marketing Profitability ReportYour platforms claim up to 140% of the sales you actually made. This report separates reported ROAS from incremental profit, shows the math for where the next dollar belongs, and gives a defensible method for the only question a CMO should answer to the board: what is working, and what should we fund next.Report · June 2026The Margin MethodThe operator's method for running a store on the one number that cannot lie: true contribution margin per order. See the number, find where it leaks, and name the biggest move, with the arithmetic shown for every step.Report · June 2026Build vs Rent: the attribution engine decisionEvery ad platform you run claims credit for the same sale. Together they will tell you they drove 85 to 140 percent of the revenue you actually made. This report works through the arithmetic of that gap, the four measurement methods that close it, and the real question underneath the dashboards: do you rent your measurement, or own it?
Guides
The playbooks the research feeds.
Guide · June 2026The Contribution Margin PlaybookRevenue tells you a business is busy. Contribution margin tells you whether it is worth running. The operator's guide to CM1, CM2 and CM3, the payback maths behind every acquisition dollar, and the one metric that ties marketing effort to durable profit.Guide · June 2026The Weather Demand Modelling GuideWeather is a measurable, forecastable demand signal you can read 30 to 45 days before it lands. This guide shows the maths, the published science, and the decisions it should change, framed for Australian seasons and the metric degree-day base.Guide · January 2025The Profit-Led Measurement GuideYour ad platforms collectively claim more sales than your business actually made. This guide is the operator's manual for measuring what your marketing truly causes, denominated in profit rather than reported revenue, using the four standard methods and the maths that ties them together.Guide · May 2026The Retention & LTV GuideMost ecommerce customers buy once and disappear. The median DTC repeat rate is 18.8%. This guide is the operator's manual for the other 20%: how retention curves behave, how to fit them, what a second order is worth, and how owned channels turn retained customers into acquisition you have already paid for.Guide · June 2026The Lead & Pipeline Economics GuideA lead is not a cost. It is a probabilistic claim on future margin. This guide shows the maths that turns cost-per-lead, close rate and sales-cycle length into one number you can manage: how fast you convert sales effort into durable profit.
How we keep the numbers honest
Four operating rules, on every study.
- Reconciled to an anchorFigures tie back to a ledger or a published dataset, not to a platform dashboard.
- No fabricated zerosWhere data is missing, the study says so rather than filling the gap.
- Estimates say soModelled or illustrative numbers are labelled as such wherever they appear.
- Method in the openEvery study names its sources and shows how the figures were built.
Want the figures on your own store rather than an industry median? The same method runs on your data in Blufire, reconciled to your Shopify ledger. Start with the CM1, CM2 and CM3 step-down, check your break-even ROAS, or see the sixteen problems it answers.