NewWeather Demand Modelling is live. Forecast demand before it arrivesWeather Demand Modelling is live

Know which customers will grow - and which are about to leave.We model churn and expansion risk across the journey.

Customers is the heart of what we do: we model the full economic life of every relationship - who is at risk of leaving, who is worth the most, and who will expand - score churn risk early, and hand you the move to get ahead of it. Keep more, grow more, stop the silent leaks.

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Diagnostics
Demonstrative data. A sample of the top-level views - the full drill-downs live in the product.
CustomersDemonstrative data · click between views
Pipeline Money · spend traced to closed revenue
Click139,760
Enquiry3,898
Qualified2,350
Quote806
Negotiation544
Won465
Stage funnel · leakage waterfall
Enquiry
3,898 · $48.7M
entered
Qualified
2,350 · $34.1M
60.3%−$6.1M
Quote
806 · $24.9M
34.3%−$9.2M
Negotiation
544 · $18.2M
67.5%−$3.4M
Won
465 · $12.4M
85.5%−$1.6M
Largest leak: Qualified → Quote. $9.2M of qualified pipeline never reaches a quote (34.3% conversion vs 41% prior, significant).
Enquiry cohort · % reached won, by weeks since
Cohort
W0
W2
W4
W6
W8
W10
W12
Jun '26
0.4
1.1
2.0
·
·
·
·
May '26
0.5
1.4
2.8
3.9
4.6
·
·
Apr '26
0.6
1.6
3.0
4.4
5.5
6.1
·
Mar '26
0.5
1.5
3.1
4.7
5.9
6.7
7.0
Feb '26
0.7
1.8
3.4
5.0
6.2
6.9
7.3
Jan '26
0.6
1.6
3.2
4.8
6.0
6.8
7.1
% of enquiries won  still maturing (lag-corrected on hover)
Customers · churn & expansion risk
Customers by stage · last 13 weeks, churn & expansion risk scored
EnquiryQualifiedQuoteNegotiationWon
Churn-risk model · at-risk customers, scored
CustomerValueChurn riskSignalGet ahead of it
Atlas Build Co$142KHighNo job in 9mo, 2 quotes unansweredOwner call + retention offer this week
Marrickville Group$98KHighSpend down 41% QoQ, slower repliesAccount review, find the blocker
Coastal Facilities$76KMedSmaller jobs, longer gapsCheck-in + maintenance upsell
Northgate Pty$64KMedSingle job, no repeat in 6moNurture sequence + case study
Vertex Services$51KLowSteady, on cycleMonitor
$1.9M of revenue sits in 21 accounts scored high or medium churn risk. Each carries the signal that flagged it and the move to get ahead of it - the model drives the save, not just the dashboard.
Retention · % of customers and revenue kept over time
0%50%100%Logo retentionRevenue retentionDAYS SINCE ENQUIRY (still open)
You keep 76% of customers and 84% of their revenue at 12 months. The gap between the lines is where small accounts churn but big ones stay - and where a retention play pays back fastest.
Channels · where the work comes from, and which we win
Enquiry share by source · blended win-rate overlay
Repeat Referral Website Google Meta PartnerWin rate
0%50%100%26%32%38%w-12w-9w-6w-3w-0
Stacked share is where enquiries come from; the white line is blended win rate (right axis). Repeat +4pp and Referral +2pp over 13 weeks.
Win rate by source · enquiry to won, last 90 days
Repeat
46% win
312 enq · avg $54k+3pp
Referral
38% win
264 enq · avg $48k+1pp
Partner
30% win
48 enq · avg $65k+4pp
Meta
30% win
120 enq · avg $32k+0pp
Website
26% win
184 enq · avg $42k-1pp
Google
21% win
64 enq · avg $24k-1pp
Repeat and Referral close at nearly double the rate of paid search - but paid brings volume Repeat never will.
Enq→Qual
Qual→Quote
Quote→Neg
Neg→Won
Repeat
92%
88%
78%
72%
Referral
86%
82%
70%
65%
Meta
82%
76%
64%
55%
Website
78%
73%
58%
48%
Partner
74%
68%
52%
43%
Google
68%
60%
51%
40%
Each row is a source, each column a pipeline transition. Repeat stays tight through every stage; paid sources leak hardest at Negotiation → Won, the price-pressure stage.
People & Performance · rep, team and region
13-week attainment ranking · teams
#1#2#3#4#5#6Metro West98%Metro North94%Eastern91%Northern88%Southern84%Regional79%w1w4w7w10w13
Each line is a team; y-axis is rank (1 = top). Crossings reveal real shifts. Southern slid from #2 to #5 over the quarter.
Repeat
Google
Meta
Referral
Outbound
S. Tran
-10
+22
+118
+5
-20
R. Okafor
+30
-15
+12
+44
-30
J. Mehta
+15
+40
-25
+30
+10
L. Cheng
-20
+33
+28
-10
+25
D. Ross
+45
-18
+9
+20
-24
A. Pulu
+12
+25
-30
+40
+15
N. Haddad
-40
+18
+35
-12
+28
M. Anderson
+20
-22
+8
+15
-54
Cell = a rep's conversion on that source vs their team median. S. Tran converts +118% on Meta; M. Anderson is -54% on Outbound. A routing signal, surfaced for your judgement.
Activity per rep · weighted touches / week
median 73/wk30507090110ACTIVITIES / WEEK · dot size = attainment
Each dot is a rep; size is attainment. Spread runs 45 to 112 a week, but activity and conversion correlate only 0.42 - three light-activity reps still close above median (large dots left of the line).
Won / Lost · why deals die
Price
Timing
Competitor
Scope / fit
No budget
Stage $
Enquiry
$0.2M
2%
$0.9M
7%
$0.1M
1%
$0.2M
2%
$0.7M
6%
$2.1M
Qualified
$0.4M
3%
$0.8M
7%
$0.4M
3%
$0.3M
2%
$0.5M
4%
$2.4M
Quote
$1.1M
9%
$0.6M
5%
$0.9M
7%
$0.5M
4%
$0.3M
2%
$3.4M
Negotiation
$2.3M
19%
$0.5M
4%
$1.1M
9%
$0.4M
3%
$0.1M
1%
$4.4M
Reason $
$4.0M
$2.8M
$2.5M
$1.4M
$1.6M
$12.3M
Darker = more revenue lost there. Price dominates and concentrates late, at Negotiation ($2.3M); Timing losses cluster early. Click any cell in-product for the lost-deal cohort.
Reason trend · $M lost per week, last 12 weeks
Price+74%
$5.4M last wkP50 $4.3M
Timing-33%
$2.4M last wkP50 $3.0M
Competitor+71%
$2.4M last wkP50 $2.1M
Scope / fit+25%
$1.5M last wkP50 $1.4M
No budget-44%
$1.0M last wkP50 $1.3M
Unresponsive-44%
$0.5M last wkP50 $0.6M
Price is accelerating (+74%) while Timing and No budget decay - the loss mix is shifting toward a fixable reason.
Negotiation → Won leak · sub-reasons
Lower bidder won
38%
of stage loss
Margin-floor breach
24%
of stage loss
Spec / scope change
18%
of stage loss
Slow response
12%
of stage loss
Other
8%
of stage loss
41% of proposals at negotiation never close. Lower-bidder wins (38%) and margin-floor breaches (24%) lead - both are recoverable with the right pricing move, median dwell 42 days before lost.
Velocity & Lag · how fast money moves
Survival curves · enquiry to won, by source
0%50%100%RepeatReferralWebsiteGoogleDAYS SINCE ENQUIRY (still open)
Each line is the share of enquiries still open over time. Repeat converts fast - half are won by day 30; Google carries a long tail.
Time-in-stage · P10-P90 days, by step (funnel order)
0d10d20d30d40d50dEnquiryQualifiedQuoteNegotiation
Box = P25-P75, the line is the median, whiskers are P10-P90. Quote is the slowest and most variable stage - median 18 days, with a P90 tail stretching to 44.
Lag-corrected forecast · next 90 days
Bankable
$8.1M
won + near-certain
In-flight
$15.0M
open, weighted
Projected
$18.2M
90% CI $15.1-21.6M
Coverage
1.8×
vs plan
In-flight pipe is lag-corrected from your own cycle, so the $18.2M projection reflects how deals really mature, not a straight line.
Geography · zone by zone
Pipeline by delivery zone · $ won, sized by colour
Metro North
$4.8M
42% win
Metro West
$3.9M
38% win
Inner East
$2.7M
36% win
Northern
$2.1M
34% win
Southern
$1.6M
30% win
Western
$1.4M
28% win
Regional A
$1.1M
26% win
Regional B
$0.8M
24% win
Coastal
$0.6M
22% win
Metro North and Metro West are 38% of won work this quarter. Coastal and Regional B see thin flow and lower win rates.
Top zones · won $, enquiries, win rate
Metro North
$4.8M
132 enq · 42% win
Metro West
$3.9M
118 enq · 38% win
Inner East
$2.7M
84 enq · 36% win
Northern
$2.1M
72 enq · 34% win
Southern
$1.6M
58 enq · 30% win
Coastal
$0.6M
26 enq · 22% win
Bars are won revenue; the north carries the quarter. Coastal brings enquiries but converts at half the rate of Metro North.
Win rate · source × zone
M.North
M.West
East
North
South
Repeat
46%
42%
40%
34%
30%
Referral
38%
40%
36%
30%
28%
Website
26%
24%
30%
28%
22%
Google
21%
20%
24%
26%
20%
Meta
30%
28%
26%
22%
24%
Referral wins hardest in Metro West; Repeat dominates the north. Route effort to the source that wins each zone.
Pipeline Economics · CAC, payback, LTV:CAC
Cost per enquiry · as it escalates through the funnel
Per enquiry
$116
raw acquisition
Per qualified
$198
after qualification
Per quote
$305
after quoting effort
Per won (CAC)
$584
fully loaded
Acquisition looks cheap at $116 an enquiry; loaded through to a won deal the true CAC is $584. The gap is where efficiency is won or lost.
Pipe coverage · region × quarter (× plan)
Q1
Q2
Q3
This Q
Metro
1.4×
1.6×
1.7×
1.9×
Northern
1.2×
1.3×
1.5×
1.6×
Southern
1.0×
1.1×
1.2×
1.4×
Regional
0.8×
0.9×
1.0×
1.1×
Metro is well covered at 1.9× plan; Regional trails at 1.1× - where the next bit of pipeline-building should aim.
Lifetime value vs loaded CAC · by source
RepeatReferralPartnerMetaWebsiteGoogle$0k$20k$40k$60k$0$60$120$180LOADED CAC · up-left is best
Up and to the left is best - high lifetime value at low cost. Repeat sits top-left ($54k LTV, $66 CAC, 8.2:1); Google is bottom-right, barely clearing its loaded cost at 1.7:1.
CustomersDemonstrative data
Customers by stage · last 13 weeks, churn & expansion risk scored
EnquiryQualifiedQuoteNegotiationWon
Net rev. retention
112%
▲ 6pp
Churn rate
6.2%
▼ 1.4pp
At-risk revenue
$1.9M
21 accounts
Repeat rate
34%
▲ 3pp
Avg lifetime
$118K
per customer
Active customers
1,840
▲ 6%
Service analytics from the team behind $150M+ in revenue influenced
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What it answers

The questions that decide whether you grow or leak.

Not a contact count. Who is about to leave, what each customer is worth over their life, and which accounts will expand.

01
Which customers are about to leave?
We score churn risk early from real behaviour - job frequency, response time, spend trend - and hand you the accounts to save while there is still time.
02
What is a customer worth over their whole life?
Lifetime value modelled from actual repeat and expansion revenue, so you invest in keeping the relationships that matter, not chasing one-off jobs.
03
Which accounts will expand, and which will shrink?
Net revenue retention by account, so growth from your existing base is a plan rather than a surprise.
04
Why do customers stop coming back?
The churn signals that actually predict it, ranked, so you fix the cause and not the symptom.
05
Where in the journey do we lose them?
The stage and moment relationships go cold, so retention effort lands where it changes the outcome.
06
Who are the best customers to protect?
Ranked by lifetime value and expansion potential, so your most valuable relationships get defended first.
Churn risk

Know which customers are about to leave - and act first.

The most valuable thing analytics can tell a service business is who is quietly leaving. We model churn risk from real behaviour and score every account, then hand you the at-risk list with the signal and the move - so you intervene before the revenue is gone, not after.

  • Scored early - churn probability from your own behaviour signals
  • The why, not just the flag - the signal driving each score
  • A move per account - the action to get ahead of it
See your at-risk customers
Customers · churn riskLive
Churn-risk model · at-risk customers, scored
CustomerValueChurn riskSignalGet ahead of it
Atlas Build Co$142KHighNo job in 9mo, 2 quotes unansweredOwner call + retention offer this week
Marrickville Group$98KHighSpend down 41% QoQ, slower repliesAccount review, find the blocker
Coastal Facilities$76KMedSmaller jobs, longer gapsCheck-in + maintenance upsell
Northgate Pty$64KMedSingle job, no repeat in 6moNurture sequence + case study
Vertex Services$51KLowSteady, on cycleMonitor
$1.9M of revenue sits in 21 accounts scored high or medium churn risk. Each carries the signal that flagged it and the move to get ahead of it - the model drives the save, not just the dashboard.
Retention

See how many customers - and dollars - you keep.

Acquisition gets the attention; retention pays the bills. Tracking logo and revenue retention over time turns a vague worry into a number you manage, and shows whether the customers you lose are the small ones or the ones that matter.

  • Logo vs revenue - keep-rate of customers and of dollars
  • Where it leaks - the months retention drops
  • Cohort-aware - newer intakes against older
See your retention
Customers · retentionLive
Retention · % of customers and revenue kept over time
0%50%100%Logo retentionRevenue retentionDAYS SINCE ENQUIRY (still open)
You keep 76% of customers and 84% of their revenue at 12 months. The gap between the lines is where small accounts churn but big ones stay - and where a retention play pays back fastest.
Expansion & net revenue retention

Grow existing accounts faster than you lose them.

The strongest service businesses grow their base before they add to it. Net revenue retention nets expansion against contraction and churn, so you can see whether your existing customers alone are a growth engine - and which accounts to lean into.

  • Expansion vs churn - the full movement of your base
  • Above 100% - growth without new acquisition
  • Account-level - who to grow, who to defend
See your net revenue retention
Customers · expansionLive
Net revenue retention · expansion vs contraction & churn
050100100%Starting+22Expansion-4Contraction-6Churn112%Net retention
Existing customers grew +22% through expansion, against -4% contraction and -6% churn - a net 112%. Above 100% means the base grows before a single new sale, the cheapest growth there is.
Where the numbers come from

Built on your systems, reconciled to your records.

Pipeline Money is not a parallel set of figures. It joins the systems you already run into one number that ties out, then keeps it current.

Your CRM

Every deal, stage, owner and close date. We map your real pipeline stages with you, so the funnel matches how your business actually sells.

HubSpotSalesforcePipedrive

Your marketing channels

Spend, clicks and campaigns from every paid source, joined to the deals they created with server-side tracking, lag-corrected to your sales cycle.

GoogleMetaLinkedInMicrosoft

Your operations software

Quoting, job management and finance, so contracted and settled revenue is grounded in delivery, not just CRM optimism.

Job softwareQuotingXero / MYOBCustom
Proof

What operators get when churn is modelled, not guessed.

When you can see who is about to leave and who is ready to grow, the saves and the upsells stop being luck. A sample of the outcomes.

Field services
30:1return
Australian Air Conditioning & Electrical
Heating & cooling
$3M in closed revenue from $100K of spend - 2,600 qualified enquiries traced to the jobs they became over twelve months.
Read case study
Field services
$5Mnew revenue
I Heat & Cool
Heating & cooling
A full year of new revenue with cost-per-deal cut from $90 to $41.95 once spend was judged on closed jobs, not leads.
Read case study
Field services
$840Kpipeline
King Cooling
Heating & cooling
1,500 enquiries at a $27 cost per enquiry, with 28% converting to booked jobs - visible, stage by stage, in one view.
Read case study
Questions

The things buyers ask.

We model behavioural signals - job frequency, response time, spend trend, unanswered quotes - against your own history, scoring each customer's churn risk and surfacing the accounts to act on now.
Your CRM shows what happened; we model what is about to. Churn-risk scoring, net revenue retention and lifetime value, reconciled across CRM and finance - granularity a standard CRM report does not reach.
It nets expansion against contraction and churn across your existing base. Above 100% means you grow before a single new sale - the cheapest, most durable growth there is.
Real closed and repeat revenue from your CRM and finance systems, so lifetime value is money received over the relationship, not modelled potential.
Every at-risk account comes with the signal that flagged it and a recommended move, so the model drives a save list your team can work, not just a chart.

Keep more customers, worth more, for longer.

Connect your CRM and finance systems. We model churn risk, retention and expansion across your base, and hand you the customers to protect and the move to make.

01

Connect your stack

CRM and finance. No data team required.

02

Map the journey

Your real stages, mapped with us.

03

Score churn risk

Every account, from real behaviour.

04

See retention & NRR

Logo, revenue and expansion.

05

Get the save list

The accounts to protect, with the move.

Book a consult Talk to an analyst